Evening Guests Only

Another Farcical Wedding
I just got back from a wedding up in the Yorkshire Dales, which if you've never been to I highly recommend provided the weather is good, as it was during my visit. Unfortunately the wedding was terrible and scant reward for driving 5 hours each way, spending a great deal on hotels and generally making a huge effort to be there.

Our reward was to sit through the usual church ceremony snooze fest, followed by not being invited to the actual wedding itself. Instead we were 'evening guests', which as a concept is fine - but only for people who are invited locally. So the six of us drove off and found a nice country pub for lunch and to watch a couple of horses die horrifically in the Grand National (I always enjoy winding up L about such things as she's a huge animal lover). Thereafter we checked into the wedding hotel and spent the next 5hrs in a bizarre situation as effective wedding outcasts or second class citizens: drinking (at our own expense) in an atrium within sight of the wedding doors but not actually allowed in.

It was funnier because the others also recognised the situation as being ridiculous - the bride, who was the only connection we all had with this whole event, did come across as totally selfish however (perhaps fair enough, it was her big day).  She wandered in for a token hello to us all, but clearly didn't give a shit that we were there and didn't recognise the effort - or more importantly didn't ensure WE recognised that she recognised the effort. 

I've been through a situation like this once before, so this clearly happens all the time due to poor wedding planning. If anybody is planning a wedding, for goodness sake think about the experience all of your different types of guests will have. For guests who will have to travel from distance, either invite them to the full day or don't invite them at all - penny pinching is not worth it.

Ethical Dilemma? Nope
I took some time out for CFA study as well prior to my wedding fun last week. The main achievement was not my progress in ploughing through the course, but rather displaying my already questionable morals by lifting the entire set of one of the more popular 2010 study guides (in convenient pdf format) from a torrent site. The irony of this given the huge 'ethics' section of the course was not lost on me - or that thousands of other would-be candidates have clearly done the same judging by the seed and peer numbers.

What possessed me to take the hard road of making my own notes is quite beyond me. With this innovative new approach, and having just spent the morning quietly printing out around 800 pages courtesy of the bank's printers, I am now all done with making notes and can focus on the review (which won't take long), and then properly learning all this, memorizing the formulae and crucially practicing questions and preparing for the 5th June exam.

In this internet age of designer drugs, I'm sure most of my competitor candidates will be high on modafinil and other cognitive performance enhancers while I pass out mid-afternoon from exhaustion. This little tactic however, is an admission by me that I need to abandon my noble aim of going through the course at my own pace to learn everything (and get side tracked by applying what was learned to various investment scenarios or candidates), and instead focus on passing the level 1 exam.

If I had continued on my current path, the pressures from balancing work with study would simply have meant I would still have been not finished reviewing the course much less been preparing for the exam proper by the end of May. I have another two weeks off in May in the run up to the exam, so this is going to be a really shit couple of months all in all.

The main plus upon getting back into work today was working out just how little work my colleagues have done in my absence. Both the other new guys are off today - one with man flu and the other from tripping on a pavement yesterday and getting a bruise. Never let it be said that men don't feel pain more than women, particularly on a Monday morning.

So my sole job for the day will be interviewing some candidates for hire later on - unfortunately for the candidates, any too exceptional (if there are any) will suffer as my primary criteria will be to ensure they are good but know less than me. Where the Dark Lord is concerned, I don't intend to be outshined by any other new hires, and instead shall ensure I remain amongst his favoured elite footsoldiers, not to be sacrificed during culls or temper tantrums.

That's a survival tip for those considering a long-term career in banking by the way.

Time to Reassess

What a month! Thanks to those of you who took a moment to post a comment.. it was a fantastic day and three weeks out in California, even if I did somehow come across five bears in Yosemite.

As I sat there sipping champagne on the flight over to Chicago, I did wonder whether I'd miss anything about my job. However I can safely report that with close to a month off I didn't miss anything, which only confirms that I need to look into a move over the coming months now that the job market it picking up to something more rewarding (read: hedge fund).

This is a really rough 'n ready entry, as I have not really had time yet to gather my thoughts on anything properly, much less complete detailed analysis into various companies I have been researching - hopefully you'll find some of the links below interesting.

Crime Pays?
On the subject of hedge funds, I have started taking a look through the speeches from the Value Investor Congress today, and of course started with Bill Ackman. I was amused to see that Pershing Square's latest notable stake is 9.5% in the private prison company Corrections Corp of America.

Recessions tend to fuel demand for life's vices: cigarettes, drugs, alcohol, gambling and of course crime. At the Value Investing Congress, Bill Ackman confirmed that the fund have bought in at "more than $24.50 a share." At this moment CXW is trading at that approximate level, so what is it about the stock at this price which has tempted in a hedge fund?

"This is one of the best real estate businesses in the world. The biggest risk to Corrections Corp is that people stop committing crimes, and I think that's a low probability event." Bill Ackman, Value Investing Congress Oct 2009

Looking at the business sector, crime combined with the prolonged economic downturn and unemployment provides a strong demand for this particular business in the coming years. As such, without yet having carried out any financial analysis of my own, we can see that Corrections Corp appears to be in a strong sector in the current economic cycle.

However where Pershing Square have commented that the real value lies is in the real estate. Combine that with the US government being a tenant, and you start to see why CXW has potential. This post on Market Folly provides some useful commentary on the actual presentation itself, Additionally the actual Ackman presentation is available here.

A quick summary of the main reasons cited by Ackman as to why CXW has significant potential:

1. Industry occupancy is high (94% and rising)
2. New state facilities cannot be built easily in the current climate due to budget constraints
3. Numbers of prisoners is continuing to increase
4. Company history of stock buy backs

Corrections Corporation of America (CXW)

Before just jumping to the latest earnings it is always useful to look at the prior quarter (at least), particularly to give perspective relating to any exceptionals.

The first quarter earnings release for CXW is here and is certainly going to have been a significant factor in influencing Pershing Square to buy into the stock. Earnings of $0.29/share with EBITDA up 9.6% to just under $100m are the headline figures, along with the final phase construction of a new correction centre and being awarded three new management contracts for over 3,800 inmates.

The second quarter earnings financial results for CXW are also positive with improving fundamentals and notably the purchase/redemption of $450m of senior notes due in May 2011. The third quarter earnings are due out on Friday, so now is the time to complete due diligence into this as an investment opportunity, I will let you know my thoughts later this week.

Shorting Realty Income
While looking at various Pershing Square info that has come out in the last month, I came across this presentation into the case for shorting Realty Income, which is interesting and worth reviewing. This article summarizes Ackman's reasoning why this makes a useful pair to hedge the CXW position.

So much to read and catch up upon, either way no more talk of weddings from L (aka 'Mrs EI'), which has to be a good thing...

Wedding Bells

Right, well I'm off to Chicago to get hitched. I'm sure it will all go well - as will the three weeks in California afterwards away from the tedious goings on at the bank.

I'm sure you all agree I look particularly handsome in this photo I took last night, wish me luck!

Cyclical Investing - Prost!

Firstly a quick word on my pre-wedding Stag weekend at Oktoberfest: excessive.. Bavarian.. fantastic! I was fortunate to go with a large group of bankers from the City (mostly Australian), who made the whole experience far better as many had been before. As such we had a great hotel just minutes from the festival, and they ensured we weren't one of the throngs without a table on the opening day.

It's a wonderful affair that despite attracting too many tourists, due to the numbers of Germans who also attend it manages to retain its cultural identify. I thought the sheer number of locals who turned up wearing traditional costume was magnificent: there is just no way we Brits would be able to take ourselves seriously wearing leather shorts.

From the singing (I challenge anybody not to have learned the lyrics to Ein Prosit by the time they leave) to the continuous shouts of 'Prost!' (cheers/bottoms up) - it was all about fun.

Oh, and for some reason I really liked the traditional Bavarian costume for the girls... I can't work out why but I'm dreaming about L wearing it now...



Champagne Tarts
On the subject of drinks, I had a few with some more senior bankers last week that was an interesting look at changing behaviour as they get older. Being mostly in their 40's and 50's they chose an old school City bar that I had never even heard of - apparently it has been around for 30 years or more, so I was informed by one fossil.

I arrived late (I still work for a living) to discover them all sprawled around several tables, reminiscing over the days when everything was charged to expenses, the Lehman Brothers collapse and generally what a complete fuck up the last year has been.

What caught my eye immediately was the lack of champagne or wine. I discounted them all vying for the first male pregnancy despite several looking due. It seems that the banker equivalent of contributing to the new Age of Austerity was everybody drinking bottled Guinness of all things. Presumably this is the 'new Champagne' in these cash strapped times - you heard it here first people, and when Diageo's shares soar on the news you know who to thank.

Still it did remind me how the days of 2005 are long gone, when amongst other bankers I had occasionally got through champers on a night out without a second thought. The bar in question was called Harry's near Cannon Street, and must hold the title of Seediest Bar In The City. On appearances, it's quite a nice little underground cellar conversion which serves good everything.

However by the time I left at 10pm the place was awash with a sea of tarted up slappers, who all clearly had arrived to play 'bed a banker'. You get the equivalent with teenage Essex girls for bankers in their 20's, so I suppose this is what they look like 20yrs on.

I watched various aforementioned tarts wander in, add another layer of foundation to cover themselves before boldy striking up conversations with the various fat bankers in their 40's and 50's dotted around the bar. What struck me were the number of single men drinking alone, and I noticed these women seemed to almost be cycling between them until they got a hit. Presumably that's my future if I stay in banking for another 20yrs - put on 40lbs and start frequenting seedy bars for illicit affairs. Yuck, what a thought.

So Many Opportunities
My thoughts are now increasingly turning to where the next big opportunity will lie after GGP as an investment. The biggest mistake many amateur investors make is to make a decision for the sake of it. Reading back I notice making that same point as I sat on significant losses on the General Growth trade back in February and March this year.

It usually takes getting burned through a couple of rash decisions before you start to realise that one of the most intelligent things you can often (but not always) do when not sure is to do nothing at all.

Buffet himself is a master at sitting on his hands when no opportunities are apparent. Berkshire Hathaway hoarded cash during the boom years, with many questioning the value of this for investors - but note how much he has been busy spending in the last 18 months by contrast. So the same of course should apply for the smaller investor, and right now the markets are like taking a walk through an orchard with trees laden with fruit. The big question however, is which will be the first to ripen, and hence which to hold as opposed to watch?

This commentary from 10 months ago is interesting, because from this you can look back and compare its accuracy:

"Even in depressed markets, it is typical for the market to stage significant bear market rallies, as witnessed in the 1930s and in Japan during the 1990s. Perhaps the best example was seen in the aftermath of the 1929 stock market crash, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied close to 50% from its November low to an April peak. Comparing the present day S&P/TSX with the DJIA circa 1929-1930, it is interesting to note very similar price patterns, plus seasonality which would suggest that the stock market could stage a bear market rally through the year end, as is typical at this time of year. " First Trust Quantitative Research - Dec 2008 Monthly Commentary

Not a bad observation to have made back in December 2008 I would say. So the post-1929 crash then saw a 5 month rally with a near 50% increase. Since March we have seen close to a 6 months rally now with an approximate 50% increase, but what about the future? What the commentary does not go into detail on is then pointing out that after this peak, the Dow Jones dropped back again (hence why it is referred to as a 'bear rally').

Investment Cycle
At a high level it is always useful to look at this old illustration of the investment cycle produced by Merrill Lynch Investment Management years ago:

Although it simplifies hugely, what this does also do is give a good sense of the need to make sure money flows regularly into different areas and sectors of the economy throughout the cycle to maximise returns. Before anybody objects or points out the danger of constantly investing/reinvesting, note I am referring to the economic cycle - which typically follows a 10-15yr cycle between peaks of each boom, so you can allow (very approximately) 2-4yrs per quarter depending upon severity.

This time, the cycle was skewed quite spectacularly after the dot com boom and crash by the flood of cheap credit, which effectively fast tracked back into a second boom. However that was exceptional, and in future it is reasonable to assume we will revert to the more standard cycle.

So firstly let's look at where we are right now - clearly in the red of recession. Looking back a year ago, you would have expected defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples and utilities were the best places to put money. That would not be too far off, although the extraordinary nature of the credit crisis meant that financials have undergone an early return to favour - at least for now - with some amazing returns in the last 9 months. I would argue that this has gone beyond fair at this stage in the cycle.

In these times, this illustrates that investors should have been focusing their search for the best opportunities in the last 6 months on growth stocks above all else. I have a long term hold in the South American company Mercardo Libre for example, which has been posting very high growth levels right through the recession, and yet took a major hit on its share price during the October 2008 crash despite no rational justification.

Sure enough, its growth has continued, and has seen a 94% rise in stock price over the last 6 months, which illustrates the returns out there. In my case, I bought into MELI long ago but looking back I bought in at the wrong time in the cycle - hence why I moved into a loss through the downturn, and am only up a modest 30% after several years. A useful illustration of the power of timing however.

My view is that small caps should remain the focus for now, although investors should be increasingly eyeing up the early cycle sectors, which include consumer discretionary (financials already covered). The late cycle sectors include materials, energy, industrials and technology, and defensive include consumer staples, healthcare, utilities by the way. There is plenty of time for further analysis and I will be drawing up a candidate list to complete detailed analysis soon - just that small matter of a wedding looming on the horizon...

G20 Truffle Hunters

Oktoberfest Awaits

What better way to ready myself for a long weekend of Germanic excess later this month than to start drinking as much beer as possible in my evenings going forwards? In truth this is going to be one of several legs of my stag do (aka bachelor party), although doubtless the messiest if everything I have heard about Munich is true.

Meanwhile the pace of life has accelerated significantly, hence the lengthening gaps between entries - although with the wedding just a month away now, perhaps that is not too surprising. Bloody hell, there's a thought - I suppose I ought to put some effort into listening to what L's talking about now as it's getting so close.

Bonuses: Political Truffles

The G20 meeting of finance ministers in London last weekend has proven as pointless as I expected, with politicians continuing to mine the rich seam of public resentment around banker bonuses that has always been there - good times or bad. Of course, the fundamental problem with this is that the political focus remains on the symptoms rather than underlying causes.

Bonuses are a small part of the problem that lead to where we are now. Certainly traders need to be deincentivised to ever make short-term decisions, hence the idea of performance assessment relating to any bonuses is a good idea. Additionally if I am being entirely honest (and I can be here), an awful lot of the financial products devised in the last 30 years are not as wonderful or essential to economic growth as bankers would like to pretend.

There is nothing new about packaging up of debt and selling onto multiple counterparties to enable the efficient flow of investment capital to where it is needed. The value of related products that enable speculative trading to take place on such processes is an entirely different point however. Do products that do not create wealth but only transfer it from one party to another serve any real purpose? Arguably they help markets determine value, but in many cases, as with speculative short selling, can instead skew valuations or undermine confidence in otherwise healthy companies.

One of the fundamental issues of the economy is it propensity to the 'boom and bust' cycle. As an asset bubble begins to form, the existence of these speculative trading instruments now enables traders to move in to capitalise on this very quickly. That would be fine if the markets rationally assessed value and pulled back, but instead the ability to hedge such strategies gives traders an incentive to 'bet' on how long the bubble will go on and to make as much profit from it as possible.

My view has long been that government and regulatory failure have actually been the root cause of the situation we find ourselves in. Banks need controls around their behaviour, and it is somewhat naive to expect such a large industry to all have the high level of morals and ethics to make the right decisions at all times if they have a choice not to. The quest to make money is an overriding factor that guides many if not most into finance after all, and unlike in politics at least bankers don't try to pretend otherwise.

What About GGP?
I know, I know - it's not like I could actually go an entry without mentioning it could I? Well, actually nothing visible is going to happen for some time now, so anybody sitting around watching daily charts would find the time better spent looking into other investment opportunities (and holding, I might add).

However there have been a couple of quite interesting commentaries that I recommend taking a look at. This commentary by Goodwin Procter on the GGP ruling provides an interesting expert summary on perceived weaknesses in the SPE structuring exposed by Judge Gropper's ruling last month. The most pertinent of these is that independent directors going forwards should rightly also be considering the interests of the parent entity shareholders, despite the theoretical silo within which SPE's are designed to operate, external from such concerns.

Much more interesting is this detailed critique of Judge Gropper's ruling by Alston & Bird. This is definitely worth some comment, as there are a couple of points I disagree with them on, although the conclusion in particular is excellent.

The commentary firstly notes the "unsettling" impact of the decision on the CMBS market, in particular several assumptions that lenders had previously made. It then moves onto the Court's assertion that its responsibility is to be viewing the issues at the corporate rather than individual entity level. Alston and Bird do not appear to agree with the one-sided slant to Gropper's reasoning, stating:

"The response of a secured creditor (of an SPE) might be to wonder why it suddenly must bear the burden of the parent’s financial difficulties. The court, however, sees an alignment of interests between the parent and the SPEs, asserting — wrongly perhaps — that the inability of the parent to restructure would inevitably impair the financial situation of the SPEs."

They go on to conclude:

"In reaching this conclusion, the court stops short of the full discussion one would expect in applying, and arguably expanding, the 'corporate family' doctrine to the GGP case... the corporate family doctrine should apply when the parts are worth far less than the whole, or, put another way, when the unity of interest protects not just the entities, but more importantly the underlying asset value.

It is not clear that this logic is sound as applied by GGP. The GGP SPEs, while part of a large, complicated corporate structure in one sense, were (or at least could be) operationally distinct, in that the malls could have been operated or managed independently from one another and the parent, either by GGP or another shopping center company or a sophisticated institutional investor. As such, the parts were not worth less than the whole—many healthy performing shopping centers could continue to operate successfully without the corporate parent."

Alston & Bird's analysis ignores several key factors. On the notion that assets could be sold off to rivals, it does not seem to account for a far from normal commercial real estate market. Where valuations of low volume, high value assets cannot accurately be reached, there is a significant scarcity of both credit and confidence, along with an industry wide requirement to deleverage. That being the case, any decision that had lead to a significant number of assets reaching the market in a short space of time would have been very unlikely to secure sufficient buyer interest to attain what could be deemed fair value in a functional market, and instead we would return to the 'fire sale' conditions reserved for companies forced to accept an uncompetitive price on an asset due to extenuating circumstances.

As for allowing the malls to be separately managed - that ignores the centralised management model that GGP operates under, as well as key functions around mall management that presumably the individual mall would have to pay for separately. While that might be coverable by the cashflows generated on that asset, there is no doubt that this would be inefficient and indeed would only ever be taken by creditors with interests unaligned with the underlying asset or wider collective.

"While the emphasis on preserving value for the collective enterprise is clearly the court’s focus, it seems unduly dismissive not even to discuss the contrary position, namely that separate loans to separate entities by separate lenders on separate properties should be treated separately."

I think it is for the reasons I have touched on above that Judge Gropper chose to not even entertain them in the ruling. It was quite intentionally dismissive, because to even hint at this avenue being viable would be to encourage activity that is detrimental to Chapter 11.

NAREIT Annual Investor Forum

What a week. Excessive work, excessive socials, and excessive wedding drivel courtesy of L. I just cannot summon up enthusiasm for all these preparations around cakes, colours, invitations and seating arrangements. After all, I'm just turning up to merge my assets with her liabilities and stamp on a glass.

Thankfully L has gone off to Chicago for the next week for something called a 'Bridal Shower' - it seems to be some sort of American fad that involves the Bride getting even more gifts ahead of the wedding. Don't get my wrong: she's the one, I love her to bits, but I can't wait to just get all these months of preparation over with.

Either way, it makes for a very pleasant weekend for me, and I might even have a rare chance to use my evenings productively this week and finish off the functional spec, which is taking longer than I had intended.

On a side note, it has been another spectacular week for GGP's share price, which ended the week near $3/share, and is now close to 400% up on the opening price on April 16, when it first opened after moving into Chapter 11 protection. This may well be bolstered further next week by the announcement yesterday that Bill Ackman is finally about to join the board.

That has some limited significance for common shareholders; Ackman was already a powerful champion for preserving value. Pershing will now undoubtedly be taking a more central role, helping General Growth to shape a reorganisation plan that pushes towards loan extensions, and possibly limited asset sales to reduce unsecured credit levels.

The annual NAREIT Investor Forum took place this week in Manhattan, and I thought those following the fortunes of General Growth Properties would be interested in the key themes that came up. None of it is particularly surprising, but then these events are mostly an opportunity for industry execs and analysts to get together for drinks.

1. Mergers and Acquisitions
At the conference there was plenty of discussion on the impact of asset sales, particularly at attractive cap rates. This was fueled by the REIT Macherich, which announced at the conference that it plans to raise capital through selling three joint ventures with cap rates of 7-8.5% on NOI. The key point there is the cap rate pricing, as these provide a viable route for raising significant capital for reducing unsecured debt.  

This gives an indication of which assets GGP may also look to sell as part of its restructuring plan.  

2. Deleveraging / Restructuring REIT Balance Sheets
It is worth bearing in mind that despite the state of the credit markets, the commercial real estate sector has managed to issue over $10 billion in equity and refinance over $10 billion of loans in the last 4 months. The price to funds from operation (FFO) ratio across the sector has markedly changed during this period to reflect these changes, having moved from lows of 6x up towards the longer term trend level of around 10x.

Various analysts have continued to emphasise the obvious: that options in the capital markets remain limited for those REIT's perceived as most at risk from leverage. Current levels are around 8.5x debt to EBITDA, and need to fall towards the long-term trend of around 5x. I think the only takeaway is that the entire sector will be continuing to deleverage balance sheets strongly throughout 2009/10 in particular.

3. Poor REIT Yields
Historically REIT's have yielded around 100 basis points above the 10yr US Treasury. Looking at the sector as a whole, there is still widespread concern that the (necessary) decision to reduce REIT dividends or payout in stock instead of cash will seriously impact the inflow of new investment capital for the foreseeable future. This may hamper the efforts of those REIT's not in Chapter 11 as they attempt to deleverage, and force others to seek protection.

4. CRE Fundamentals 
Occupancy rates are expect to fall by 3-4% by the end of 2010; along with rental declines of up to 30% for the lowest quality malls gives some indication of the pressure that will continue to build. That will act as an offset as the capital markets continue to unfreeze, and as I have mentioned in my previous assessment of the TALF legacy, while criteria are set at AAA assets only, this is going to have a limited impact on relieving the sector.

5. Raising Additional Capital
Focus at NAREIT has also been on ways of generating sufficient market interest beyond dedicated REIT investors, to enable the commercial real estate sector to recover. From what I have been able to determine so far, there does not seem to be any particular strategy beyond time and the fact that as income levels stablise, generalist investors will return.

Different Worlds, Different Priorities

I had an exhausting long weekend in Chicago for a Jewish wedding, so have spent this week jetlagged and wishing L would give me just 5mins respite from wedding planning. I swear, every evening it's something or other - yesterday selecting invitation designs for the UK reception, another time the cake design or colour of ribbons for the chairs.

It won't get any easier tonight, as L took it upon herself to invite two friends (of hers) over for dinner, leaving me to keep my eyes open into the early hours and feign interest.

As I walked over here to my lunchtime bolt hole to write an entry, on this glorious summers day here in London, I mulled over Bill Ackman's PR offensive yesterday, in which he effectively drew a line in the sand with respect to GGP's reorganisation plan, and how if this was put into place he could see a conservative cap rating lead to a 13-fold increase in his investment return upon emergence from Chapter 11.

The plan that Ackman has suggested is very simple: extending most of GGP's $27bn of debt for 7yrs, which he argues will solve all the company's problems without requiring asset sales.

It certainly sounds feasible, although would be highly unpopular with many creditors. However in principle if the court agreed to such a proposal then that is precisely what could happen. All indications to date are that Judge Gropper agrees that taking decisions that protect the wider CRE market are in the public interest. Widescale loan extensions will nonetheless be fully serviced by GGP due to its viable operating model, so this seems quite feasible.

I had envisaged widespread 2yr extensions with limited asset sales, but Ackman is clearly setting out the case with the ideal scenario for common shareholders.

Anyway, there was a certain irony that I was toying with how it would feel to bag over £1 million profit from a trade as I wandered down one of the City's many backroads, when I overheard a middle aged woman - presumably talking on the phone to her husband - arguing over whether it was him or her that was supposed to have paid the £1000 for the mortgage that month.

Different worlds, different priorities. It makes me realise how much of a bubble I live in sometimes when I overhear a conversation like that.

I think that it is fair to say that the market has started to consider GGP as a potential investment opportunity now, rather than after bankrupcty. This is part of the market reassessment after the Court's positive rulings in GGP's favour relating to the SPE inclusion in Chapter 11, amongst other things, earlier this month. I was disappointed by the lack of market response initially, but I think it took time for investors to digest the implications.. I forget most are not so close to the detail.

The end result on closing yesterday, is that the share price has now risen by exactly 200% since GGP filed for Chapter 11 and opened at 60 cents a share on April 17. Not a bad return in 6 weeks for anyone bold enough to buy that day. Although I am averaged in above $1 myself, I am already sitting on a significant unrealised profit, which feels rather better than a loss, however meaningless.

Wedding Heaven

L seems to think that planning a wedding together is supposed to be an amazing, joyous experience, and is upset with me that I am not as enthused. Or to put it another way, that each time we discuss her plans for spending thousands on this and that, I am raising an eyebrow at where her original 'affordable' and 'low cost' wedding plans have gone. The amount she is proposing for a photographer and band are a great example.

I want to make sure that it is a wonderful day, so let me say it's not that I don't want to get married or don't care. But I really do not understand where this hideously commercialised industry has sprouted from in the last 50 years. It seems to have evolved specifically to fleece couples of as much money as possible, while delivering nothing more to make the day any more memorable or special than it was before all this was a social expectation. So what if the photo's are airbrushed with fake lighting and remove the zit which appeared on the morning of the wedding?

Perhaps it is because I am inherently one of those people who is careful with money. When I spend on something, I want to know it is good quality and will last so that I get value for money. I don't like frittering money away on something that lasts a single day and will pass in a blur.

I'll try to convince myself it's because I understand what money is all about - namely for getting us a family home, and eventually providing well for the next generation, not pissing it away because of social expectations. If truth be told, I would happily marry without all this pomp in a registry office and let my love show in other ways - not to mention the large diamond ring I got for her in last summer. That was actually part of our unofficial deal: the ring will last for the rest of her life, so I could justify spending on that, but it was in exchange for a lower key wedding. Of course, that agreement with L seems to have now completely gone out of the window - too much time watching the Wedding Channel methinks.

It's not helped by her father being a useless waste of space who has never provided for her, and so certainly won't be contributing a penny towards her wedding. In fact, I will be surprised if somebody doesn't end up paying to fly him out for the ceremony.

So anyway, this last week since L got back from seeing her family has been a mild stand off between her broaching the subject of confirming various details, and then me pointing out the huge cost and asking what other options we have available.

It's interesting from talking to my colleagues of both genders further on in life about all this. The men nod knowingly, and tell me that the same happened to them and that they felt powerless to resist. The women usually say that the costs are ridiculous, and several have admited they got carried away as well - probably with some context they can see now what a few thousand quid extra would do for their children. Anyway that's my minor rant over about weddings.

L is sulking with an extended lie-in this morning, because I am heading out all afternoon to see a football game with a former colleague from the bank. Sorry, they were corporate tickets so I couldn't say no darling... and anyway, he has has recently defected to a rival - always a good opportunity to find out the sorts of details that were going on in his area that couldn't be revealed at the time...