Itchy Feet

No, I've not got fungal spores growing down there, but I must confess that despite the downturn I have been continuing a quiet look around despite a secure position. There is no real need, besides feeling that I have got everything out of this job that I can - and get called most days by one slimy headhunter or another.

I started looking around in December as a hedge given the uncertainty of my position at the bank. Now, rather than turn down any potential opportunities before they presented themselves, I went along to a final round interview with a fund management group last week, to get a sense of what else is out there on the job front. After the positive reactions from my quick look around, I really don't get a sense I would need to look too hard to find more work.

I know plenty of people who have been out of work now for as much as 18mths now, many of whom are now retraining and looking for a career outside the City. Fair enough, most of them weren't that great in terms of work ethic or skillsets, so perhaps that goes back to why recessions are arguably healthy for the economy in the long term.

When I think of the uncannily accurate stereotype of the modern Essex-boy trader in the City, I think of excessive coinfidence, excessive compensation, and excessive lifestyles - and no sense of understanding the value of money. Many appeared to have all the morals of footballers as they frittered away cash on coke fueled evenings and God knows what else - strip joints seemed to be a favourite from what I can gather of various lewd comments I have heard on the Desk over the years.

Anyway, the interview itself was fairly boring - a final round with a 40-something partner who probably makes more in a month than I do in a year. Unfortunately he spent more time talking about himself than asking any questions, in particular wanting to find out whether there was potential business I could bring in from my current bank. I discounted him and the role within 10mins, despite him starting to lavish praise on me towards the end.

"Well, you're obviously very bright and articulate" he said, beginning his ring-licking closing speech.

"I think with your background and skills you'd make an excellent addition to the group, and I'll be in touch with Helen to arrange to take this further".

I loved the assumption on his part that I must be interested.

It has however made me start to wonder whether a strategic move would be a good idea in around 6mths time. Perhaps even to a bank in the Far East for a while. I have gained about everything that I can from my time here, and change is beneficial despite us naturally shying from it. I think a well-timed hop would reap great rewards. However this one needs to be very carefully timed, so as to not enter at a low base (now crucial), and a role with enough upward potential. Before you wonder, I consider this an aside to mull over while I work on the business plan.. and anyway, I've got a wedding and honeymoon to factor in for later this year..

I'm very much now in holiday mode. It's 2pm and I can't bring myself to get back to the office.. that's right - my previous meeting 'overran'. I don't leave for another couple of days, but am purposely doing as little as possible in the meantime and delegating. I'll be out of here at 6pm tonight on the dot for a change, and need to start planning what to do with L. Two weeks off - what bliss!

Recession Regeneration

A woman collapsed on top of me while on the train into work this morning. I was sitting there, minding my own business, and the next thing I knew I was struggling to hold her weight up, with her sheet-white face inches away from mine. She appeared to have nearly fainted; I was on my feet in a moment of course. However despite insisting repeatedly that she sit down, she refused and got off at the next stop.

It reminds me of a time I came across a man lying on the pavement on Queen Victoria Street right by Bank on a weekend. The place is always deliciously empty around that time of the week, and so it was left to L and I to keep him company with his shocked friend, while we waited over 20mins for an ambulence (appalling service). I never did find out what was wrong with him, but sincerely wished him good luck as he left, given the range of possibilities. Anyway, combined with this sobering photograph of the former reality TV oddity Jade Goody, now diagnosed with terminal cancer, it was a reminder of what is really important in life - and that does not include spending the rest of life in the rat race or on a daily commute.

I am going to pick up on the business plan I started working on last summer. I am about one-third of the way through so far, but it got shelved during the excitement and fall out of the banking crisis - partly because I needed to focus on trading, and partly because the concept is suddenly less appealing in the short-term when the world is undergoing severe risk aversion. However that will change again, and I am going to set myself an aim to have an initial version of the site released by the end of July, not least because the primary cost will be my time and effort.

On an aside, my cat sitting weekend was far from the purr-fest we had been anticipating. My brother seems to own a schizophrenic moggy, which rather like him is socially dysfunctional. The moment he left, L and I were greeted with hisses and growls (yes, from a cat), and it only got worse when we opened the door to introduce him to our own kitty. Ours is a Norwegian Forest cat which are a good natured breed. It turned out to be a good illustration that we all live in our own reality, and make as much or little of a situation as we choose. So in my brother's cats case, he had a miserable, stressful weekend locked in a room away from us instead of being pampered.

A choice quote today came from the noted British historian Dr David Starkey, who commented on the City, recession and Prime Minister:

"..the City is always rebuilding - it is like a slow-motion film, rising and falling. It's absurd of our Prime Minister to say 'No more boom and bust'. The City depends as much on bust and destruction as it does on boom."

Of course, with some historical perspective Dr Starkey is absolutely right. The press continue to feast on the bad news: isn't this the worst recession in a thousand years yet? It is easy to forget that in just a few years time this will be behind us, and we will be building again from a sustainable platform for growth and prosperity. By contrast the last decade is personified by a morbidly obese football fan, who spent all his money on an expensive flat screen TV (with cable of course) - and did nothing but watch it while eating hamburgers all day. In short, it was unhealthy, unproductive and unsustainable.

Those nearest the above caricature are likely to suffer most, but it is the recession which will ensure we all learn the importance of fiscal responsibility. Not least the importance of that old proverb 'always save for a rainy day'. Boring yes but welcome to the real world, fat bastards.

Otherwise Starkey's best observation relates to the splendid restoration today of The Monument, that seventeenth century marvel which represents the City of London's rise from the ashes of the Great Fire of 1666. When asked 'is there a modern equivalent of the Monument? It serves no commercial purpose', Starkey had no hesitation in replying:

"The whole of Canary Wharf. Every modern bank is to do with the length of the banker's cock."

I had to smile at that one, and when I started cross-referencing the height of those bland, glass towers to the incumbant CEO's of the respective banks, there was no argument from me.

Whispering Rumours, Job Cuts & Backstabbing

It goes without saying that the mood in the City right now is sombre, and as bad as I have ever seen. What's more worrying is that even the old timers who are serving life sentences at the bank also comment on how they have never seen anything this bad.

However as with investing, people need to detach those emotions and put everything into perspective, or we risk sensationalising the situation like the press.

Yes we're in for a tough year or two. For the vast majority of us that simply means a little belt tightening and dealing with some jobs worries. Otherwise there is really no meaningful difference. For that minority who end up out of work or losing their homes it is a different story of course, but that's not something that will happen to me as I'm financially insulated. While I feel sorry for those in that position, you make your own bed in life to a large extent, whether you realise it or not.

Strangely I'm still fending off calls from headhunters despite the downturn, and am delaying final round interviews at a couple of decent firms purely to cover my angles ahead of the next round of job cuts at my bank. It seems a little odd to me to be in such a fortunate position, especially as I know plenty of people who have already been out of work for as much as 15mths now, which I'm sure must be horrendous.

Everyday at work, beyond the buzz of the trading floor, there are whispers as bankers quietly discuss the latest job rumours. Despite assurances from senior management after the last round before Christmas that that was it, these mostly focus upon when the next round will be. I for one am far too cynical to believe the last cull was anything other than the start of the process. Why? I researched and asked old timers what has happened before in these circumstances and they knowingly told me the process.

Senior bankers seem to actively do their best to depress their workforce in times like this. Mostly it's because rather than biting the bullet and cutting 25% of the workforce in one go like they ought to, and being able to convincingly tell all the remainder they are now safe, they instead go about it via 3 or 4 rounds of 10% cuts (or smaller rounds that are not noticed as much), spaced over a year or more. That leaves everybody scared, depressed and fearing they will be next.

The City's an interesting place to work, where people do take a certain malicious glee in discussing and joking about the possibility of job losses in the same way we discuss companies and financial opportunities. I am no exception, and as such have been busy spreading the rumour that a cut is imminent in early February, and bandying around figures as high as 10-15%.

In my case I have analysed the percentage gone so far, and that estimate seems quite realistic. I have even gone so far as to draw up a spreadsheet of my team members, to work out who the next 1 or 2 should be to go in the next round. I'm being honest with myself and don't think I factor in the bottom 5, hence my assumption I should be some way off the firing line at present. Or so I like to comfort myself.

Nonetheless that doesn't take into account the huge amounts of political maneouvering and backstabbing that is an everyday part of City life. You never quite know what else is going on out of sight, particularly in earlier times at some of the other places I worked.

At another bank, when I joined I quickly worked out that a colleague, Irish Al, had a deep loathing of our manager. Not so unusual you might think, until I learned that 'The Dome', as he was known due to his shining, bald head and apparent desire for all of us to worship at his feet whenever possible to feed his ego, had secured a fast promotion from the new group head when he took over. He did this by meeting with him and planting the idea that he had come up with the idea for a new product that was making us lots of money in the markets.

The reality was that Irish Al had devised it, but to his amazement soon found himself working for the underachieving Dome - and suffering his wrath for the classic reason that he was a perceived threat. Actually now I think of it, I found out that Irish Al was fired last Wednesday from the bank.. something tells me that The Dome will still be there in his kingdom. He'll probably have his entire team sacrificed this year in order to save his own skin.

It might just disappoint you by my saying that where I work now is a refreshing improvement. That might be part of what makes it more successful. Having said that, I'm sure as times get tougher we'll see the real character of a few of those around me.