Hard Dose of Reality

I think the blog stereotype would be to spend this entry whinging on about how unpleasant it is being back at work, and how I'd like to win the lottery. On the latter point I would, but getting up today and going in was fine - helped no end by allowing yesterday for recovery and catch-up.

Having carefully managed my inbox remotely, I have had a relaxing morning back, and found time to continue work on my business plan yesterday evening at long last. Working on the plan remains my absolute top priority; nothing else in my life right now provides a glimmer of hope from escaping the daily grind of commuting into the office like this. Work is stale, and I am yearning to inject change into my life once more - however in a controlled way, without impulsively quitting and costing myself dearly.

On the plus side, the holiday really has been inspirational after my chance meeting with Peter, as I mentioned previously. Even if my site does not take off as planned, I will persist with the venture and look at what needs to change to make it work.

Once married in October, I am seriously looking into travelling to Asia and Australia for 3-4mths next year with L, although the site might make that impractical. It's really quite simple though: if we don't do it now, we won't do it in the next 15-20yrs assuming a family, as logistics will simply prevent it. The cost is of course lost income, which is a big draw that works so effectively in preventing most of us - another reason why unexpected job losses in a recession can be a blessing.

Anyway the other fun event looming next week will be the G20 economic summit here in London. Given the sheer level of anger towards the City and Wall Street these days, not least over the various bonusgate scandals, I expect to see the kind of violent protests that haven't taken place in the City for a decade or more. Last time, I recall stories of traders coming back from lunch with a dozen eggs ready to pelt protesters from the office windows - and know several who got involved in fights out on the streets. Ideological conflict of the more direct kind, I suppose.

This time I suspect we'll see none of that. Given my bank is arguably the highest profile, we'll go to usual rear-door entry only procedures while the protesters waste everybody's time with this pointless nonsense. If anybody going believes they will actually change anything then they are naive.

"Down with capitalism!" they scream.
"And replace it with what precisely?" we reply.
"ANARCHY!" yells a lone teenager bunking school.

Silence from the hopefully more mature masses, because unless there is a manifesto I am yet to see, these protests are not sure what they want - only sure what they don't want.

When driving around the United States, the world's richest and most capitalist country, it seems inherent that there will always be significant wealth imbalances throughout the population. Some is hugely unfair, but some is quite right, even if those worse off cannot see it.

Governments need to ensure opportunities are provided for everybody and restore genuinely unfair imbalances. However it is critical to have a system where those who innovate, create and/or work hard - for example on a business plan and website - deserve to be much better off than the majority who choose to sit around watching TV or playing on their XBox 360's every evening.

Inspirational Example

Our holiday has been most pleasant, as is knowing I have another 5 days to go. I've been quickly logging into work occasionally to keep my inbox from overflowing - and to remind myself how much better life is away from the place.

The best part of the holiday was surprisingly spending some time flying elsewhere to meet up with L's cousin, who is currently managing a 2yr old baby girl with two 5mth old twins. It was a fantastic lesson in the benefits of birth control, and has convinced me there is no rush just yet to sign away my life. Just to illustrate the point, now that we are back in Sharm, I stayed in bed until 10am this morning.

What was most interesting and enjoyable for me however, was the chance to meet with the husband of L's cousin on the evening we stayed. Peter is actually an American from the south, so has a fantastic drawl in his accent, and as I was forewarned, was a 'serial entrepreneur' (a phrase he actually derided as ridiculous as in his opinion if you are an entrepreneur you will continuously set up businesses - he's right of course). In his case, he has set up all manner of businesses in the past, from a restaurant, real estate and haulier businesses, to his current bio-tech company, which is involved in stem cell research.

What was most heartening is that when talking to Peter was that I felt like a kindred spirit - we agreed on absolutely everything, and it made me realise how close my mindset is to that of an entrepreneur. I even outlined at a high level my business idea, which he thinks has a lot of potential - and I think he is the kind of person who would have picked holes and been honest rather than tip-toed around.

As an entrepreneur he was very impressive, and it really was an inspirational, lightbulb discussion for me. Seeing somebody who has gone out there and done it - in his case without a college degree and no background in biochemistry, made me realise there and then that the only way I can avoid being my Boss in 10yrs time is to make this happen. I need to devote significant amounts of what little free time I have towards completing the business plan, I need to oversee the site development, build initial partnerships, revenue streams, and push all this forwards so that when we emerge from the recession I have a site ready to capitalise fully on an inherent need from investors.

Some other good news since I have been away was discovering that two people who were fired from my bank at various points last year have now picked up new jobs. It must be a huge relief for them both, and does illustrate how there are jobs out there, even in these tough times. One has moved out of London and finance, the other is a wily old fox unable to do anything else, who has picked up a role at one of the more successful fund management groups.

Otherwise the deadline regarding GGP and bonds was extended by a week until today to give them more time to confirm or reject the proposed extension to the year-end. Meantime Bill Ackman, head of the activist hedge fund Pershing Square has given another interview reaffirming his belief that controlled bankrupty is the best solution both for GGP and the REIT sector as a whole (given that liquidation would have disastrous ramifications for US commercial property prices).

It was heartening to see that Ackman is pushing to join the board of GGP, as his interests are well aligned with shareholders in increasing value. Here's to a profitable outcome, meantime patience on this prevails.

I'm off now to join L at the pool and then down to the beach. I'm not really a beach or sun person but do this occasionally for her - and have an interesting book called 'The Millionaire Next Door' that Peter left for me when we returned the next morning to say goodbye. It seems to be a detailed analysis of the mindset of the 'average' millionaires in society, who are anything but the flash, opulent 'well to do' living people most would expect - actually it comes as no surprise to me, but then I understand the importance of saving, investing and living below your means. Should help pass a few tedious hours as I try to avoid burning...

Work-Life Balance

Am I the only one to see the irony in a pub named 'The Golden Fleece' being just a couple of hundred yards from Bank on Queen Street?

If ever there were a phrase to sum up the activities of all banks then this has to be it - including the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, for all her generosity with our cash these days.

Well this is more a sign-off for now: I am in one of the most delicious moments - the final day before L and I take a well-earned two week holiday. Yesterday was hectic again, and a further illustration that the bank finds itself underresourced in many areas now. More importantly, the holiday will be a wonderful respite from the daily grind - and let's face it, getting away from blighted Blighty is practically a necessity for the soul in 2009.

As a nation, we appear to be revelling in bad news, as epitomised by the continuing, grotesque voyeurism of the tabloids tracking Jade Goody's decline from terminal cancer.

My only resolution while away? Well, I'm sure the odd entry, but most importantly to find a little time to work on the business plan. It has great merit, and I am convinced that I can translate words into a pilot site quite quickly. Not least because I set up a (failed) consultancy business many years ago.

By a cruel quirk of fate, the critical deadline for GGP (Mar 16) will also be reached during my vacation, but as I invested with the understanding it could all be lost, I have no intention of letting that spoil my party should something particularly bad happen (unlikely). At present GGP are in a solicitation process with the Rouse bondholders, to suspend all payments due on Mar 16 without action on their part until the end of this year. Interest will continue to accrue meantime.

It will be highly significant if the bondholders bite, as it will in effect be a vote in the future of GGP, and significantly reduce the chances of GGP filing for Chapter 11 next week. On the other hand, if they do then I will also be very pleased as it will resolve the financial limbo - either result ought to start the move back upwards towards the $5-10 range that GGP would more realistically be priced at were it not for bankruptcy fears in these risk-averse times.

For those of you working tomorrow, I'll have a cocktail to toast absent friends when I land..

Itchy Feet

No, I've not got fungal spores growing down there, but I must confess that despite the downturn I have been continuing a quiet look around despite a secure position. There is no real need, besides feeling that I have got everything out of this job that I can - and get called most days by one slimy headhunter or another.

I started looking around in December as a hedge given the uncertainty of my position at the bank. Now, rather than turn down any potential opportunities before they presented themselves, I went along to a final round interview with a fund management group last week, to get a sense of what else is out there on the job front. After the positive reactions from my quick look around, I really don't get a sense I would need to look too hard to find more work.

I know plenty of people who have been out of work now for as much as 18mths now, many of whom are now retraining and looking for a career outside the City. Fair enough, most of them weren't that great in terms of work ethic or skillsets, so perhaps that goes back to why recessions are arguably healthy for the economy in the long term.

When I think of the uncannily accurate stereotype of the modern Essex-boy trader in the City, I think of excessive coinfidence, excessive compensation, and excessive lifestyles - and no sense of understanding the value of money. Many appeared to have all the morals of footballers as they frittered away cash on coke fueled evenings and God knows what else - strip joints seemed to be a favourite from what I can gather of various lewd comments I have heard on the Desk over the years.

Anyway, the interview itself was fairly boring - a final round with a 40-something partner who probably makes more in a month than I do in a year. Unfortunately he spent more time talking about himself than asking any questions, in particular wanting to find out whether there was potential business I could bring in from my current bank. I discounted him and the role within 10mins, despite him starting to lavish praise on me towards the end.

"Well, you're obviously very bright and articulate" he said, beginning his ring-licking closing speech.

"I think with your background and skills you'd make an excellent addition to the group, and I'll be in touch with Helen to arrange to take this further".

I loved the assumption on his part that I must be interested.

It has however made me start to wonder whether a strategic move would be a good idea in around 6mths time. Perhaps even to a bank in the Far East for a while. I have gained about everything that I can from my time here, and change is beneficial despite us naturally shying from it. I think a well-timed hop would reap great rewards. However this one needs to be very carefully timed, so as to not enter at a low base (now crucial), and a role with enough upward potential. Before you wonder, I consider this an aside to mull over while I work on the business plan.. and anyway, I've got a wedding and honeymoon to factor in for later this year..

I'm very much now in holiday mode. It's 2pm and I can't bring myself to get back to the office.. that's right - my previous meeting 'overran'. I don't leave for another couple of days, but am purposely doing as little as possible in the meantime and delegating. I'll be out of here at 6pm tonight on the dot for a change, and need to start planning what to do with L. Two weeks off - what bliss!

Is Quantitative Easing The Answer?

I have read a couple of interesting, contrasting views this week in the Telegraph on the subject of quantitative easing between Roger Bootle, the founder of Capital Economics, and Liam Halligan, the economics editor of the Telegraph.

Bootle's article in favour is here, whereas Halligan's exactly opposing viewpoint today is here. For the record, I am in favour of quantative easing, which for me has been highlighted starkly by the plight of General Growth Properties (GGP), and its urgent need for refinancing in order to service its debt load. As I have stated previously, GGP is a healthy company in terms of its asset base versus liabilities, and would be fine servicing its current debts before the credit crunch. Instead it is now left struggling to repay loans as they come due, because of the seizure of the CMBS market and a chronic loss of confidence in its financial viability.

Whilst Liam Halligan gives a useful perspective and balance to those calling for quantitative easing, I was left finishing his column still asking the question 'what precisely are we to do to ease the current credit crisis in that case?' He appears to suggest there is a rabid group of lobbyists suggesting any other viewpoint is held up as a heresy, which unless I am missing something is nonsense. Certainly it has become the consensus opinion amongst government and businesses, but I am quite open to alternatives if a convincing argument can be constructed.

The question is whether it is better to do nothing at all and to let banks and businesses all fail in order to avoid the spectre of inflation and short-term (significant) public debt.

Going back to the commercial real estate sector in the US, and Commercial Backed Mortgage Securities (CBMS) being near completely frozen as a going market. It would be like all banks suddenly refusing you when your fixed term mortgage deal expires, and instead demanding you sell your property at the worst possible moment in the economic cycle. It would lead to huge individual suffering for homeowners, and in the same way will see all manner of otherwise viable companies going to the wall throughout the economy - that means job losses, financial losses, and pain for many.

The US alone has a vast $200bn of such loans coming due in 2009/10 - without QE to fuel the TALF lending that will enable such businesses to refinance and ride out this period, they will simply go under. Why is that better than QE to buy those assets, and eventually sell them back onto the private sector as it thaws (and in effect 'undo' QE, reducing the money supply and trying to avoid inflation being controlled)? I fail to see why targeted action is not better than simply doing nothing.

It is one more week to go until GGP reaches its critical deadline for loan extensions on March 16 - this coincides with the repayment due to Rouse bondholders, who are a group owed money after GGP bought Rouse back in 2004. This ought to see some movement through meaningful announcements - the options being either GGP is forced to file for Chapter 11 due to Rouse bondholders, extensions being announced while TALF funding is still on the near horizon (the whole process is predictably dragging and will take months yet to take effect), asset sales ($400m has been offered for 3 properties on the market for example) to pay off key loans, or a GGP takeover/joint venture.

All are possible, to my mind all will benefit GGP's shareprice significantly. My only wish is that I had bought in now rather than in December, but I expect to see a huge improvement in my position on this trade in the next 6 weeks.

Calamity Chain(saw)

Like investors, banks so often make the mistake of under or overreacting to situations. In this case, the growing consensus at the bank is that this has been a level of cuts too far.

Suddenly all manner of tasks, from day to day tedium to vital projects, are facing significant delays. Trading, Operations and Support teams were left scrambling to try and fill the holes left by 'resources moving on', which is the amusingly non-descript corporate phrase being used to describe the practice of mercilessly firing bright, hard working employees who mostly have done nothing to deserve it. The most bizarre part is that countless teams are finding experienced experts who survived being randomly moved onto other teams that are in worse trouble. To my surprise the firm is managing to now also utilise fewer resources less efficiently.

Perhaps it's me, but the whole thing indicates a pea-brain level of decision making at the top. Presumably there is an inverse relationship between salary size and common sense.

As such my life has suddenly timewarped and gone from manageable back to an earlier time in my career, with far too much hands-on crap. I was busy working long hours before, but suddenly the lunchtime stroll I was regularly taking in the City to somewhere where I write this blog has become a luxury. I spent 6hrs solidly in meetings from 1pm yesterday for example. So much for work life balance anymore - our masters at the top appear to naively have expected us to simply deliver as much as before (perhaps because that was mostly possible in the previous round).

It is perhaps telling that Asset Management have already been given tacit approval to start hiring, which says everything you need to know about how close we are to reaching the bottom. I think we are there, but that is dependent on when the credit markets start to thaw.

On that subject, it is good to see that the UK and US governments are pushing on with policies to pump much-needed funds into the economy. I don't subscribe to the public hysteria about letting the banks rot, but that is hardly going to surprise anybody. What some people do not appreciate is that governments are not spending our money - they spend that and more before we pay taxes each year - but that due to circumstances, they are simply increasing a number in the computers at the Bank of England and Fed.

Quantatitive easing in this case is not really about printing money. In theory it will be about buying up assets that push money out to the credit markets and (in theory) encourage lending, and then selling those to the private sector once normality starts to return (paying off the money it has created). The issue is ensuring that the money is circulated rather than holed up. It is rather like if the government sent a £1000 cheque to everybody. Two years ago I would have been online to book a holiday within a minute, but today it is just as likely I might save that for the all-too-likely rainy day, thus making no actual improvement in the economic situation. Actually not in my case, I would just get on and invest it as I do most of my savings.

On that subject, GGP remains at historic lows in the 40 cent range right now. Indications are that asset sales are on the way, which should enable several loans to be paid off. There are currently fears circulating about GGP needing to dilute shares hugely through an issue to pay off additional debt next year - that is unfounded given that at these low levels the firm is worth a mere $100m, when its balance sheet indicates $3-4bn is more accurate. It would effectively hand the entire firm to a single creditor, which nobody would want. The creditor would want cash, not to inherit the mess GGP is in, and nor would it benefit significant shareholders currently negotiating such deals.

I am still optimistic that patience will see a resolution to the GGP refinancing impasse, and Chapter 11 remains a useful bargaining tool for the firm in securing fairer terms with its creditors. Having looked into this in more detail, I am starting to conclude that the UK needs to implement similar protection laws here, although hasten to add I am no expert so that is just an aside.

Finally, it was amusing to see Gordon Brown on the front page of the Metro on the way into work this morning. The caption read he was being greeted by congressmen, although as with most things relating to him, on closer inspection it was less impressive. Those eager, outstretched hands turned out to be teenage pages, who work for the senators there on secondments. Very impressive Gordon, I'm sure your vacuous speech will save the world (again) as well.

Cull Over - But No More Complacency

I have not been writing recently because last week turned out to be quite traumatic at the bank. To everybody's surprise, after the smokes and mirrors that are rumours around these things, they instigated a full-blooded 10%+ cull from Wednesday onwards.

It was brutal, with many colleagues I rated highly and consider friends having fallen victim. Does it make this any more personal or meaningful? Not in the slightest - I have felt fully in touch with the downturn since mid-2007, this just feels like another round. Many people I have known and worked with for years mysteriously disappeared from the global email directory (the surest first sign a 'resource' has been erased). Suddenly all number of mails were bouncing, and then the biggest shock was the immediate dismissal of one of the most productive members of my own group.

With junior trader long since departed, I had long held an assumption that this would be sufficient, or at worse the other chap with a black mark on the list would get a quiet invitation from HR upstairs for a chat. As it turned out, it was nothing of the kind, and shocked everybody to the point where we all sat in silence afterwards - with the exception of an intern who could went off to the toilet, coming back later red faced, having evidently been crying.

I never really felt particularly in danger or worried, perhaps because a part of me yearns for the shove I need to move out of this profession forever. With this round the bank has reduced headcount now by approximately 30%, so should any further cuts be required there is no doubt it will be all into the meat.

Otherwise L has been getting evermore excited by the wedding later this year. I had a weekend of talk about various, tedious aspects of planning, followed by doing my best to be enthused as I was led around the Kings Road like a puppy on a leash, to inspect her in various bikini's ahead of our vacation next week. Actually that part was enjoyable.

I have made one definite decision about the future however: the 8-7 slog that I am currently enduring cannot go on for much longer. It has been observed by many that life is too short, and I don't intend to be one of those who only realises that when it is too late. As such it is time to push on full ahead with my business plan, and I need to stop leaving work pressures as an excuse as you can make anything happen with sufficient will.

The key story that for me in the last week has to be the government's hysterical response to Fred Goodwin's fat pension.

"Not even Abu Qatada at his most unappealing could hope to match the intensity of abuse heaped on The Shred."

I was going to comment on this in some detail, until I happened upon this article by the great Jeff Randall, who sums up my own thoughts on this perfectly. A pathetic, transparent attempt by a discredited government to fuel the public thirst for vengence whilst deflecting attention from the real issues, including those most responsible - the government. They can only spin like this for so long before The Shred stops being the main story.

Fred Goodwin's pension is obscene under any circumstances in my opinion. But were I him and suddenly found myself called by Lord Myners with a zero notice threat, I would have responded in exactly the same way: on principle fight it all the way, and only make a decision like that when not strong-armed or threatened. Should he cave in now, his detractors will say that he only gave money back due to Gordon Brown and his pious preacher of hypocrisy Jacqui Smith - thus handing them an undeserved victory.

Sir Fred has ample opportunity to reflect on his compensation, public feelings and what is the right thing to do. A mark of the man will be seeing what he decides in 6-12mths without any such threats hanging over him.