Trader Territory Marking

As expected, the motion filed by Hugo Boss for a relief from the automatic stay (see previous entry for link to the motion) was roundly rejected by Judge Gropper last week. Otherwise this story is doing the rounds today, and illustrates how the 'sword' of Chapter 11 can be used as a threat:

"[GGP] said it was considering ways to treat some of its subsidiaries as a single debtor and override their status as separate companies."

This is actually going over old ground, although it would be useful to clarify there is an apparent difference in how substantive consolidation is being used. The major concerns of the credit industry lie in CMBS being substantively consolidated into wider loans such that the agreed collateral is no longer secure - this been addressed in court submissions and will be protected by the replacement lien and order for GGP to provide 'adequate protection'.

There is however a desire and incentive by GGP to consolidate lender negotiations where possible through the Chapter 11 process to assist in restructuring - the two are not necessarily incompatible, although GGP is clearly using this as a threat.

A sign of the changing tide perhaps - our first new trader since 2008 joined the Desk on Monday morning. Somehow we coped after Junior Trader's departure earlier in the year - we lost a character, but not a revenue generator. However increasing volumes and opportunities are encouraging the bank to pick up some people again.

I always enjoy watching new traders when they join a Desk.. the verbal rutting with the old hands an be highly entertaining as they attempt to establish their place in the team. In fact, for those who don't work for banks, just pop on Animal Planet when you get home tonight and you'll get the idea - replace the hogs and territorial scent marking with traders crude humour.

He might have turned into a pious, hypocritical waste of time now, but back in 2007 the columnist Cityboy gave this old example of trade floor dynamics, which plays out in various forms every week:

"Why are you such a fat bastard?" said the posh salesman to the barrow-boy trader, who admittedly did look like he'd been on the notoriously unsuccessful 'all pie diet'.

The recipient of this rather innocuous insult slowly swung around in his seat and with perfect comic timing delivered the oft-used but still classic response: "Because every time I shag your wife she gives me a biscuit".

It is how well a new arrival can handle themselves and fit in with the Desk dynamics that plays a major role in their success at a bank. Obviously though, that only goes so far. Exceptional sales contacts, or an innate talent to manage large portfolios and hence bring in huge amounts of cash make those further up happy and that is what counts most of all.

I've seen some real arses turn up over the years though, and not all have been the 19 year old Essex boy sterotypes - although on that subject, many of them are a particularly special blend of twat. With a stated aim of doing their trading exams straight out of school, these kids are often very average – not even skilled numerically - but to their credit they don't waste their time or money following a route of higher education – and with hindsight I don’t blame them.

I recall an Irish guy who arrived at a former bank I worked for, and made the mistake of continually boasting about senior roles at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs previously. He also made the mistake of looking down on the rest of us and making sure everybody knew it – I think in a misguided attempt to establish himself as the alpha trader.

Unfortunately that sort of attitude doesn't endear, and within a week the team had dug the dirt on him via ex-colleagues, and confirmed his overstated role and habit for bullshit. On his first day off, the team took some time out in the morning to ceremoniously unveil a sign above his monitor reading 'Little Fella' for him to find upon his return. A reflection of his small stature in more ways than just his height.

Interestingly that was a name which stuck for the remainder of his time there..

Anyway so far our new boy seems fairly quiet - listening and learning about the non-standard systems and what portfolio's he's inheriting. Let's see whether he starts pissing off anybody over the next month or two as he comes out of his shell.

The Art Of (Self) Assessment

It's that time of the year once more, when bankers are expected to select a number of colleagues who we have tenuously worked with over the past year, and ask them to provide constructive, impartial feedback on our performance.

In the name of self-assessment, we seek to better ourselves as individuals.. to make the world a better place. And more importantly determine the size of our bonuses.

The whole process is about as impartial and representative as reading the average pile of resumes that are ending up on my desk for a role we've got open - i.e. nothing more than a partisan sales pitch. Assessments are more an art than science.

The key for any graduate wondering how to climb the greasy pole, is to always select your assessor targets early in the year. I started buttering up a select few around March - inviting them out for drinks on me for example. It's amazing how much goodwill a bottle of champagne buys. A couple of tickets to a football game is a virtual guarantee of performance inflation.

Most important of all, is to combine all of this with being unjustifiably nice to them throughout the year, even when they deserve a verbal slap for incompetence.

Such self control means the end result is always fun to behold; by next month, as the glowing reviews flow in for me, others who don't prepare in advance repeat the same cycle of suddenly realising too late that they've spent most of the year pissing off people that now matter to them in a way that really matters - financially.

"Emerging Investor is a wonderful chap, a credit to the bank - and clearly one of a deserving elite that requires a fat cheque to retain his services."

Having had a browse of the Yahoo board for the first time yesterday, the above would be a lot more constructive feedback than the first comment I noticed about one of my early GGP legal analysis posts. Not anything about what I actually said - no, just some waffle about not liking the white text on a black background - clearly the author is senior management material.At this stage of the year, senior managers also frequently apply another subtle tactic, as they realise the value in being seen to 'deliver something' impressive by November. Typically from now the industry sees a flurry of small projects kicking off, combined with a hiring spree as consultants are pulled on board with no regard for cost or efficiency - all in order to further aforementioned manager's potential bonus.

Only minor rumblings on the GGP front: the judge has ordered the firm to pay Deutsche Bank the full amount of the non-default contract rate for two malls. The headlines cite the additional $2.89m GGP must pay, but at LIBOR +6% this is an entirely fair ruling.

The only other news is that GGP have applied to extend the time frame allowed within Chapter 11 to finalise and submit a restructuring plan. This will be heard on July 22nd, along with hearings to approve the success and DIP financing fees. This request to extend has been triggered due to several factors. Firstly the underlying complexity of GGP's credit structuring, and sheer number of individual creditors, means that completing this task by mid-August was always ambitious at best.

Otherwise though, the cynic in me cannot help but observe that Chapter 11 protection is an advantageous position for GGP to be in right now. While it remains here, partially shielded from the slowly passing economic downturn, its pressing need to refinance is removed, and it can happily sweep its excess cash flows from all its entities centrally, and use these to fund operations and loan repayments - all while continuing negotiations.

It is now the creditors on the back foot and more interested in seeing GGP restructure and refinance so that they can at least re-access the principle from their CMBS's, which is a good example of Chapter 11 positively incentivising.

Oh, and do take a moment to read this classic story doing the rounds right now. The Goldmangate scandal relates to a dodgy Russian programmer (referred to as a 'strat' internally at GS), who decided to further the national stereotype with some good old corporate espionage. Old Twinkle Toes Aleynikov, hatched a plan to download all of the algorithmic code for Goldman's infamous 'black box', which is actually a swarm of machines that make automated trades in response to news and events, and which brings in millions of dollars of pure profit each year.

Every major bank has a black box, but Goldmans is the most famous as they were an early and prominent pioneer of algo trading. Unfortunately Aleynikov seems to have not been especially bright, and either assumed the security around this was not high (picture a financial Fort Knox in reality), or that his idea of zipping, encrypting and sending out in smaller chunks to an external server was subtle.

Of course, that triggered the internal alarms and the rest is history with the FBI.

"..if you think about it, instead of getting their panties in a bunch over a coupla jacked megabytes of data, the Masters o' the U should be looking at this whole thing as a source of pride. Everybody wants a piece of their shit." Bess Levin, Dealbreaker

You can always trust Dealbreaker to say it like it should be said.

Oh, Stop The Baracking

Well, I'll have to put aside my discussions on investment briefly, as there has been an interesting development at the bank.

By good fortune, one of the junior team members has just decided to quit. The reason is being kept secret for now, but he was a veritable Lothario despite ears that stick out like dinner plates, and there are rumours he has been sleeping with the personal assistant of a particularly senior MD in synthetics. If that got found out then it was never going to go down well - particularly if the MD was also getting some on the side.

What was more interesting however is how this fits into the impending job cuts here - our Boss announced his departure rather cryptically this morning; that is was his own decision (yeah, right), and mentioning his leaving date was still to be confirmed "pending some negotiations".

From talking to the chap in question who is leaving, this is all about when he can hand over his work, which sounds reasonable enough on the surface. However our Boss is a sly old fox, and is more likely to be delaying the whole process so that our boy counts nicely in the round of cut backs next month. A splendid idea, and at the same time the Boss can avoid making any of those nasty decisions that reduce team morale.

Otherwise I have a couple of sources dotted around in the Bank, one of whom works for global security. They are very useful to know, because as a group they need to be informed in advance when we're about to fire people so they can be ready for the odd disgruntled former banker who might come storming back into the office to vent their views on life, the universe and anti-Capitalism. Global Security's usual tactics these days has therefore been to simply lock the doors on the day of the cull - unfortunately we all know that game now so it is also taken as a sign that something is afoot.

Apart from confirming my suspicions that a cull is on its way "within a month", he also confessed his team had even gone to the length of locking the office doors periodically on other days recently, to try and make it seem more of a usual event! It sounds like they haven't got enough to do if they're wasting time with antics like that, and a few of them should join the exit queue.

Otherwise my highlight news of the day was waking up to find that the new, incoming President, Barack Obama, is taking the time to make sure we bankers are lined up as the sole fall guys for the global economic crisis. In an age of irresponsibility, there is no doubt that the City and Wall Street ought to be hung out to dry. But so too should the governments that steadily reduced the regulatory framework for years to the point where all this was possible. To use a zoological comparison, if the government is an animal keeper and the City a tiger, it's like putting the tiger in an enclosure next to some lambs, with only a low, wooden fence between them. And then blaming the tiger the next day when you get in to find a blood bath (but a fat, happy cat).

And while we're on the subject of personal responsibility, let's have a moment to think of Average Man On The Street and his stupidity in spending far beyond his means for years by borrowing against the value of his house.

In reality, Barack's barracking is a response to 'Bonusgate' - the scandal currently engulfing Bank of America / Merrill Lynch, in which former Merrills CEO John Thain opted to pay his people a fat bonus before the inevitable bad times engulfed the firm. Thain's head rolled quickly enough this month, although BoA made a poor job of trying to stitch him up by pretending they had no knowledge or influence over the decision.

In reality that is a load of rubbish, as Thain made clear in public interviews that could not be convincingly denied by Bank of America. As such we ought to see Ken Lewis (CEO of BoA) on his way soon as well. It's entirely fair given the amount of public money being used to keep the combined bank afloat, and is probably the first signs that the compensation culture of global banking is changing forever.

Meantime for a man who spent his campaign talking about rising above finger-pointing and blame, and focusing on resolving the problems, the President seems to still have had a spare moment to give a mid-digit to Wall Street for all the problems they are going to cause him for the next couple of years. Fair enough.

For Whom The Bell Tolls

"Perchance he for whom this bell tolls may be so ill, as that he knows not it tolls for him; and perchance I may think myself so much better than I am, as that they who are about me, and see my state, may have caused it to toll for me, and I know not that."

In John Donne's round about way, he was observing how interconnected we all are, which was a good effort in a world before globalisation. On the other hand I recall learning that same lesson on the bus on the way home from school aged 14, as I sat next to one of my best friends, Birdshit. I should qualify he was named that because of a permanent, natural little blond patch in his hair that.. well, you get the idea.

I recall turning to say something to Birdshit, with my mouth wide open, and at that exact same moment he (with a streaming, heavy cold) turned and sneezed in my face. I can still remember that feeling as his snot was catapulted down my throat. The cause and effect was apparent within seconds. I had him in an armlock and was repeatedly beating his head against the glass, and then two days later I had a streaming, heavy cold up at my Grandma's.

Anyway, the events of the last year can only have confirmed to those in the City that their welfare was actually strongly interlinked with red necks in the States. I know a few who would probably snort indignantly now at such a suggestion, but the facts speak for themselves given how many currently give a best case scenario of ending 2009 still with a job.

That process of interconnectedness is beginning to get juicy here at the Bank. The bell is busy tolling like a death chime for the coming cull on the trading floor - only really noticeable during the quiet periods before Squark Box. A number of my fellow bankers have had a quiet shoulder tap or 'invitation upstairs for a chat' from an unknown HR manager in recent months, and as I mentioned previously, that process has actively fuelled fear and I think is soon about to continue.

For some who are more in need of a job than me, supporting families with all the costs associated, I can almost see the sense of semi-permanent desperation and fear. But actually the whole thing *is* an enormous joke, and we really need to confront it and realise that the worst case scenario isn't actually that big a deal.

Otherwise I wish people would stop bringing their stress to work, the City just isn't as much fun as it used to be. Until something interesting kicks off at the bank, I think it's time to get back onto investing again next time.