The Price of Advice

With the long Easter weekend now upon us, I am going to use this as an opportunity to plug on with the business plan.  Otherwise though, a quick observation on life at the bank, which has become amazingly boring since I got back from Egypt last month.  It almost feels like the quiet after a hurricane has passed over.. we rats are only poking our noses out of the hiding holes we have been in for essential activity.  

The good news is that, as of last week, all of those I know who have been fired from my bank have now all landed new jobs.  It's a great sign that they have been able to cash in on the ill-justified prestige associated with this place, and secure decent roles even in these tough times.  By chance I had a quick coffee with another headhunter myself mid-week - as I say to all of them, while I am not actively looking, I am always "open to opportunities".

In this case, he spent half an hour ignoring me and pitching a near-identical role to me over at one of the other banks down in Canary Wharf.  I have no desire to increase my commute from West London by another half an hour or more a day, I remember from living down there that Docklands is a gigantic, soulless wind tunnel without any of the charm or benefits of the City.

I explained to him several times that I have no interest in taking the risk of a move to do the same role somewhere else.  As and when I move next (and this is all based on the assumption my web business has not fully taken off by then), I want to use it to make a move into a related but different area.  

A good example was one of the guys on the desk who left last year to join a Venture Capitalist firm - no, not junior trader - he's ended up at that crappy little French bank Calyon, so that hedge fund claim was all bullshit.  Sadly it also means my 10mth punt in the office sweepstake didn't come up.

In one sense I dislike VC's and their predatory, short-termist nature (all they are really interested in is taking a firm to the market as quickly as possible to realise quick returns).  However the entrepreneurial aspects are hugely appealing to me, and his move has made me realise that I do not have to continue with a role that I can do with my eyes closed, and can look to make a move across into something new and fresh going forwards.

Of course, who knows with these times what is or is not possible.  I am a great believer in persistence when told no.  You need to have vision and see opportunities rather than closed doors.  No direct experience in the area?  So what?  I had none in my current role here at the bank when I joined - instead blagging through the countless interviews through a combination of being personable, articulate, some juicy white lies and by not being clueless.  If it worked here, it can work anywhere.

On an unrelated topic, I am going to get up on my soapbox about the quality and impartiality of research reports. I have access to so many as you would expect, and and am constantly amazed by how insubstantial the actual research often is. Whenever I go up to research, those fucking clowns are usually surfing the web - their technique is to cut and paste observations of others before rewording, and otherwise calling up investor relations to get the latest key financial figures to add to their reports.  

The end result looks great, when shoed into a professional research report template.  If ever you needed proof that presentation goes a long way, analyst reports by the banks are it.  The actual content is usually woefully inadequate - weeks behind, or offers little if any meaningful insight and usually regurgitates old news or views.

They almost always go with the mainstream consensus, or safe view as well, rather than even discussing different strategies depending on investor risk tolerance.  A good example is GGP, which naturally is one I know a lot about.  Reports out now do not even consider many of the issues I have discussed on here in their recommendation - just a sweeping generalisation of the REIT market prospects in 2009. 

To anybody who doubts it, believe me that if you take the time to do your own research on any company with information available in the public domain, you can easily put yourself well ahead of those who place their trust in crappy, overpriced analyst reports just because they have a bank's brand name stuck in the top corner.