Increasing Confidence

Another fine, relaxing weekend is in prospect - L is doing what she does best and having a lie-in as I write, and that leaves me with a spare moment to write a quick entry.

So G20 this week was every bit the anti-climax I expected. I wonder how much of that $1tr package was pre-negotiated - all of it I expect, with some hand shaking and breast beating for the cameras. GGP has been equally unexciting in its lack of progress over the last month, although major shareholder and activist Bill Ackman has spoken out again in favour of the company filing Chapter 11 soon and a pre-packaged bankruptcy.

I agree with the approach, provided common shareholder value is left in tact, which it ought to be given (and Ackman stresses), that GGP's problem is the unusual case of insolvency. Issuing shares as a means of raising capital is almost impossible for a company that has seen its share price fall by 98.5% in a year. Combined with the increasing signs that the US government will be stepping in to directly support the US commercial real estate sector, and specifically the REIT's, I am planning to increase my stake in GGP at these bargain prices.

"Bernanke said the eligible collateral for the Fed's $1 trillion Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, will likely expand to include commercial mortgages and securities that aren't newly issued."

Some patience is required to hopefully buy at a really good price on a dip in the coming weeks, but I am looking to buy another 100,000 shares should the right opportunity arise.

Protests for the Cameras

It has been an amusing week so far in the City. Apart from everybody using it as an excuse to turn up in jeans and send around some great piss-taking jokes regarding the protests, nothing much has actually happened until today.

Then of course, the much publicised four "horsemen of the apocalypse" converging on the Bank of England to lay siege to financial institutions. The whole event has been nothing more than a symbolic gesture, largely for the cameras with gimmicks like this: I suppose the scuffles, pushing around and football crowd like chanting is all about garnering a little attention. Hey, if it relieves some stress then feel free - it's not going to change a damn thing. Over at my bank around the corner, we were just out of sight of all the fun, but it didn't stop me popping out at lunchtime to go and watch. Otherwise the live stream from Sky News provided a welcome distraction from work

I found the appearance of Russell Brand particularly bizarre.

"Tell us Mr Brand, what are you angry about?", asked the eager reporter.

"Well.. I'm just.. here." replied Brand, visibly uncomfortable at the attention.

"But why specifically are you here?"

"Hey I'm just here.... participating mate." (uncomfortable look and silence from Brand)

Pathetic, the guy is a serial publicity seeker who revels in his lothario, bad boy image. He clearly decided that it would improve his image through association, and then when the predictable violence kicked in it would do him no favours and made himself look like an utter fool.

Otherwise though, the real treat was the excuse to nip off early to 'beat the protestors'. They are being contained nicely by the police (fine work by the way chaps), and were rumoured to be 'releasing' them at 5:30pm. Cue the entire office leaving at 5pm. However I'm watching TV now and see them all housed in.

Anyway what has all this really achieved? I'm afraid about as much as the G20 summit will.

Hard Dose of Reality

I think the blog stereotype would be to spend this entry whinging on about how unpleasant it is being back at work, and how I'd like to win the lottery. On the latter point I would, but getting up today and going in was fine - helped no end by allowing yesterday for recovery and catch-up.

Having carefully managed my inbox remotely, I have had a relaxing morning back, and found time to continue work on my business plan yesterday evening at long last. Working on the plan remains my absolute top priority; nothing else in my life right now provides a glimmer of hope from escaping the daily grind of commuting into the office like this. Work is stale, and I am yearning to inject change into my life once more - however in a controlled way, without impulsively quitting and costing myself dearly.

On the plus side, the holiday really has been inspirational after my chance meeting with Peter, as I mentioned previously. Even if my site does not take off as planned, I will persist with the venture and look at what needs to change to make it work.

Once married in October, I am seriously looking into travelling to Asia and Australia for 3-4mths next year with L, although the site might make that impractical. It's really quite simple though: if we don't do it now, we won't do it in the next 15-20yrs assuming a family, as logistics will simply prevent it. The cost is of course lost income, which is a big draw that works so effectively in preventing most of us - another reason why unexpected job losses in a recession can be a blessing.

Anyway the other fun event looming next week will be the G20 economic summit here in London. Given the sheer level of anger towards the City and Wall Street these days, not least over the various bonusgate scandals, I expect to see the kind of violent protests that haven't taken place in the City for a decade or more. Last time, I recall stories of traders coming back from lunch with a dozen eggs ready to pelt protesters from the office windows - and know several who got involved in fights out on the streets. Ideological conflict of the more direct kind, I suppose.

This time I suspect we'll see none of that. Given my bank is arguably the highest profile, we'll go to usual rear-door entry only procedures while the protesters waste everybody's time with this pointless nonsense. If anybody going believes they will actually change anything then they are naive.

"Down with capitalism!" they scream.
"And replace it with what precisely?" we reply.
"ANARCHY!" yells a lone teenager bunking school.

Silence from the hopefully more mature masses, because unless there is a manifesto I am yet to see, these protests are not sure what they want - only sure what they don't want.

When driving around the United States, the world's richest and most capitalist country, it seems inherent that there will always be significant wealth imbalances throughout the population. Some is hugely unfair, but some is quite right, even if those worse off cannot see it.

Governments need to ensure opportunities are provided for everybody and restore genuinely unfair imbalances. However it is critical to have a system where those who innovate, create and/or work hard - for example on a business plan and website - deserve to be much better off than the majority who choose to sit around watching TV or playing on their XBox 360's every evening.